Why We Started FTC
Which Way Western Man? The question isn’t “left vs. right,” it’s productive vs. extractive.
We’re late in a Fourth Turning—stress, confusion, and contested institutions. Our bet is on the coming First Turning—the renewal cycle where new rules, rails, and norms get written in software and incentives. In moments like this, the real divide isn’t left vs. right; it’s productive vs. extractive.
Large parts of the “capital class” borrowed against yesterday to clip rents from tomorrow—and were the most rattled by reform-minded leaders—while the productive side kept funding frontier tech to expand abundance. Labor shows the same split: builders who create daily resilience versus actors who mainly game the system. That distinction is the reason we launched First Turn Capital.
Our mandate is simple: back productivity, not predation. We invest across AI, crypto, and frontier technologies—through equity, tokens, and select special situations—that lower costs, widen access, and become durable infrastructure. On returns, the bar is set by monetary debasement and inflation: with structural deficits and ongoing dilution, we assume an ~11% annual “fiat hurdle” to simply preserve purchasing power (h/t @RaoulGMI). In plain English: an 8% nominal return, after fees and taxes, likely loses in real terms if dilution runs near 11%. That tilts the field away from levered rent-seeking and toward genuine productivity growth.
That’s also why we publish. Turn Signal is our thesis in public—signal over noise for the First Turning. We’ll share what we’re seeing, why it matters, and where it could break or break out. We invest, then explain—sharing our reasoning and, where appropriate, disclosing positions.
What to expect here
Field notes & frameworks: short reads on AI agents, cryptography, market design, and digital property.
Build logs: how prototypes become plumbing—distribution, licensing, governance, and incentives that actually work.
Macro & liquidity watch: business-cycle signals, flows, and how policy and liquidity regimes cascade into venture, crypto, and public markets.
Post-mortems & receipts: what we got right/wrong, with real positions when we can share them.
If this resonates, we’d welcome a note. If you’re building for the First Turn, we’re glad to review an overview or product demo.
Credits: This piece builds on a framing from an X post by Tyler Neville; appreciation as well to @RaoulGMI for the dilution “hurdle rate” lens that forces capital toward the frontier.
